Sunday, February 27, 2011

Hezbollah ... post-Tahrir square...

"... Understanding Hezbollah ..... it doesn't want responsibility for decisionmaking commensurate with its power, as I discovered in conversations with several Hezbollah officials.
I met last week with Ammar al-Mousawi, the top Hezbollah "diplomat," and several of his subordinates in the organization's international department. This was an "unofficial" visit, so I can't directly quote Mousawi or his colleagues. But the discussion illustrated the thinking of the toughest player in the world's toughest political league.
Hezbollah appears to realize that the revolt sweeping the Middle East has subtly changed the game for them. Officials see the Arab world moving into a more democratic and pluralistic politics with the fall of regimes in Tunisia, Egypt and perhaps Libya. In this new environment, Hezbollah doesn't want to be seen as a sectarian militia or a wrecker, but as a democratic partner (albeit a potent one that has thousands of missiles pointed at Israel). Because Tunisia, Egypt and Libya are Sunni countries, recent events can be seen in part as a Sunni political resurgence, which Hezbollah must respect.
The first order of business for Lebanon's Hezbollah-dominated government will be the delicate matter of the United Nations inquiry into the 2005 murder of former prime minister Rafiq al-Hariri..... Hezbollah seems assured that the practical effect of any indictments will be blunted and that the matter will be left unresolved in characteristic Lebanese fashion...
So eager is Hezbollah to avoid responsibility for unpopular decisions that officials object to descriptions of the new government as Hezbollah-controlled...
Does Hezbollah see any doors to the West opening in the post-Tahrir Square environment? Is a Middle East "restart" possible that might allow gradual engagement with, say, the United States? I didn't hear much enthusiasm for that idea ...
Hezbollah is a ruthless political player, but it's a mistake to underestimate the finesse of its tactics. Officials insist that no matter what the West may think, the Shiite militia is logical (meaning self-interested) in pursuing its policies. And the ever-logical Hezbollah seems to realize that even the self-styled "resistance" must make adjustments in this period of Arab upheaval."

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